Physics of the Future
(Book excerpt from Physics of the Future by Machio Kaku)
By 2019, he predicts a $1000 personal computer will have as much raw power as a human brain. Soon after that, computers will leave us in the dust. By 2029, a $1000 personal computer will be 1000 times more powerful than a human brain. By 2045, a $1000 computer will be a billion times more intelligent than every human combined. Even small computers will surpass the ability of the entire human race.
After 2045, computers become so advanced that they make copies of themselves that are ever increasing in intelligence, creating a runaway singularity.
Singularity Q&A
So what is the Singularity?
Within a quarter century, nonbiological intelligence will match the range and subtlety of human intelligence. It will then soar past it because of the continuing acceleration of information-based technologies, as well as the ability of machines to instantly share their knowledge. Intelligent nanorobots will be deeply integrated in our bodies, our brains, and our environment, overcoming pollution and poverty, providing vastly extended longevity, full-immersion virtual reality incorporating all of the senses (like The Matrix), “experience beaming” (like “Being John Malkovich”), and vastly enhanced human intelligence. The result will be an intimate merger between the technology-creating species and the technological evolutionary process it spawned.
And that’s the Singularity?
No, that’s just the precursor. Nonbiological intelligence will have access to its own design and will be able to improve itself in an increasingly rapid redesign cycle. We’ll get to a point where technical progress will be so fast that unenhanced human intelligence will be unable to follow it. That will mark the Singularity.
When will that occur?
I set the date for the Singularity—representing a profound and disruptive transformation in human capability—as 2045. The nonbiological intelligence created in that year will be one billion times more powerful than all human intelligence today.
(Originally published in 2005 with the launch of The Singularity Is Near.)
Our perspective
Throughout the book, we have mentioned how robots and AI are increasingly encroaching the work domain of humans and how they are becoming better, faster and cheaper. Incidentally, this technological progress is being led by humans themselves. A robot still doesn’t create itself and assign itself the task to be done. The AI doesn’t perform beyond the set of instructions and limited non-biological intelligence inculcated by its designers. All progress in automation, robotics and AI is dependent solely on human ingenuity and intent.
As we increasingly develop their capabilities, it is estimated that in a quarter of a century, non-biological intelligence will match the range and subtlety of human intelligence. At this point, AI would theoretically be capable of recursive self-improvement (redesigning itself), or of designing and building computers or robots better than itself. Repetitions of this cycle would likely result in a runaway effect — an intelligence explosion — where smart machines design successive generations of increasingly powerful minds, creating intelligence far exceeding human intellectual capacity and control. Because the capabilities of such superintelligence may be impossible for a human to comprehend, the technological singularity is an occurrence beyond which events may become unpredictable, unfavourable, or even unfathomable.
There are multitude of differing opinions from experts in different field on possibility of singularity, the time at which it may occur in future and what will be its implication on humans. Some foresee it as an inevitable impending event, while others dismiss it as fantasy created out of pixie dust. The actual outcome will depend on how and on what we spend our intellectual, economic and social resources for in the next few year.
Gazing through the crystal ball
- Knowledge – more of the ‘same’ as well as new- is in itself a source of intelligence (may be the lowest level, nonetheless a source of intelligence). Don’t compete at this level of intelligence with the robots. The latter will always organise and use it better.
- Imagination is as yet a domain outside of robots and we can compete with them on the dimensions related to the power of imagination. But how do you out-compete fellow humans in imagining better?
- Ethical and extra rational dimensions of thinking may just be beyond the line of sight of robots. Be ethical and value bound and you will have better career opportunities in the digital world.
